China 2008: What If, What Else, and What Are The Odds

Saturday, December 8, 2007 8:28
Posted in category The Big Picture

During 2007, China changed a lot. There were new regulations, a strengthening RMB, consumers starting voicing their opinion, the Hu Wen Administration implemented numerous new LARGE regulations that affected everyone doing business in China… and I am pulling them together to see what is next.

Spawned from my curiosity and inability to stop thinking in worst case scenarios, I will be pulling a group of Old China Hands together this week to discuss the topic China 2008: What If, What Else, and What Are The Odds.

While closed to the general public, and media, I thought that I would throw out some of the questions we will be discussing next week to see what readers thought on some of the possibilities of what could happen in China next year.

  1. What regulatory changes were passed in 2007 that you feel will have a significant impact on your operations (good & bad).
  2. What macroeconomic/ regulatory events had the most positive impact on your business in 2007?
  3. What macroeconomic/ regulatory events are you hoping will follow in 2008?
  4. What would be the impact if any of the following happened?
    1. Macroeconomic:
      1. RMB reaches 6.25/ USD
      2. Complete VAT rebate removal
      3. inflation reached 10%
      4. Interest rates rose 3%
    1. Operations:
      1. Severe Power shortage or extend outage (think California power crisis)
      2. Labor disputes following Jan 1 labor law
      3. Increased environmental inspections and enforcement
    1. What will have the greatest impact on trade
      1. Continued fall of the USD/ Rise of RMB
      2. Complete Removal of VAT
      3. Policies of foreign government(s)
      4. Product safety
      5. other?

5. What is your work economic nightmare?  What would knock your star out of the sky?

Hopefully, this will be one of the more interesting threads. I know you all have your “expert” opinions, but more than anything, I hope that through this post (and the exercise next week), a process of thinking through the possibilities will allow participants to uncover and evaluate potential shocks to the system… and from there figure out the best protective measures to take.. and perhaps figure out the best offensive measures to take.

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