Which of the Big 3 Will Fall Into Chinese Hands First?

Thursday, November 27, 2008 1:26
Posted in category Uncategorized

I wanted to take this opportunity to bring together and update a few old posts (There Will Be No More 3rd Tier Suppliers in America! and Will GM Become a Chinese Brand?) of mine where I looked at one option for China’s auto brands to leave the shore… buy American

Now, before I go any further, I am going to say that I really don’t take any pride in writing  this post, nor am I looking at this as an “I told you so”.  There are a lot of real people who lives will be impacted by the decisions made by executives GM, Ford, and Chrsyler, and sadly while many executives will remain relatively solvent, there are others who are under them that will not be.

Simply put, the options before the executives are limited, they are limited because they failed to make a series of decisions over a long period f time, and in the end a lot of people are going to get screwed…..

When discussing the bailout with people here, and in reading the commentary abroad, it seems that the two most likely events are (1)  government will bailout the industry because they are too big to fail or (2) that bankruptcies will ensure, and communities will be rocked.

In following the line of thought in my previous posts, the potential of a Chinese buyout seems not only more likely.. but could be the best option for helping to stabilize the industry.

Of course – as several people have mentioned through the course of conversation – to try and take over an entire firm would likely fail. That taking a brand of the portfolio, Buick for example, would be the most likely entre point, and that through this strategy a brand would be saved.

Were this process to begin, and SAIC were to make a pitch for one GM’s or Ford’s brands, the only real question for me would be whether or not this would be a pill American’s would swallow.

Or if it would simply increase the support for the bailout?

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