China’s PMI Feb Figures Predict Nothing, Global Freight Trends Do.Thursday, March 5, 2009 2:01
Earlier this week, there were many who saw China’s PMI of 49 as a sign of hope that things were turning around, but I did not…. and I just received this email from a good friend who is on the front lines of the cargo industry:
To be honest scary dead… it’s an absolute horror scenario going on the moment… no cargo in the market….
Heard this morning in the news around 300 cargo vessels are parked around Philippines due to no cargo in the market…
For me, this pretty much says it all.
That while things were “rebounding” in February, we are in for a rough March to April as vessel bookings have dropped off the charts and boats are being parked.
Update: As a follow up to this email, I asked my friend “If no cargo in the market now, when do you see orders coming back online?”, to which he replied:
Well I don’t see things picking up before Q3 for 2009… it’s quite scary…..
Update 2: Bloomberg’s article Empty Ships Flock to Subic Bay as Lines Battle Plunging Rates provides some more context on my friend’s comments:
Subic Bay in the Philippines is the busiest it’s been since the U.S. Navy moved out 16 years ago. The traffic surge is coming from ships all carrying the same cargo –nothing.
Last week, 19 vessels were anchored in the mountain-lined bay awaiting charters near an empty container terminal.