Is China’s Story Over? Is it Time to Pack it in or Time to Turn the Channel?

Monday, June 16, 2008 21:52

Will China’s economy implode after the Olympics?

This was a question that even back in 2002 when I first landed in Beijing people were trying to answer. Some of the smartest China people I knew at the time, and who hold senior places in companies in China, at the time weren’t even sure the ride would last as long as it has… and when SARS hit China in 2003, all bets were off.

Alas – we are still here – and come hell on earth, snow storms, lead painted Barbie dolls, tit-for-tat trade policies, VAT rebates, energy shortages, coal disruptions, gas lines, H5N1 and a host of other issues… the economy has defied the sucking sound of the US economy to continue logging 10%+ gains.

It has been fun to watch.

When seeing the Montley Fool article Is the China Story Over?, come across my RSS reader, I must admit that I shuttered to think that another analyst abroad was trying to predict the trajectory of China’s economy without much basis for understanding it.

but I was wrong… well.. half wrong:

Right now, we are on a Motley Fool Global Gains research trip in Asia. Our goal in coming here was to get the investor’s view from the ground. That’s why we went to Xi’an — to see “the real China.”

Sure, they are analysts abroad (-1), but they admitted it (+1), and rather than get blinded by the glass curtains of Beijing and Shanghai skyscrapers, they went to Xian (+1.5), and I think have done a pretty fair job of addressing some common misconceptions (stock market)… and putting a few other things in perspective…. and did me a favor by putting together a nice profile on a company focused on China’s agriculture (China Green Agriculture).

Take the 5 minutes to read it. Even if you are an Old China Hand, you will appreciate it.

Update:  After posting this I emailed the authors to let them know about it, and it turns out that Bill Mann is an old China hand with experience in China’s Telecom sector.

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One Response to “Is China’s Story Over? Is it Time to Pack it in or Time to Turn the Channel?”

  1. Chris Devonshire-Ellis says:

    June 17th, 2008 at 6:05 am

    China’s fine. FDI was up 50% over last year:
    Xi’an rocks too. The Executive Centre are putting in a serviced office complex there and Ascendas have a business park. Your classic 2TC – and Xi’an is a great one with over 54 universities packed full of young Chinese engineers.