Rising Concern As Economic Ripples Widen

Monday, December 1, 2008 20:25

Through this post, I realize that I am going to fail to break new ground, but I have read several articles this week that have lead to three conclusions for me.

(1) They have showed me that the full economic circles are being completed and
(2) it is clear that we are now in a cycle that will not be curbed through another meeting of the G20, another press conference by a finance minister, or the election of a new US president
(3) A lot of people tied to globalization (designers to retailers) are going to face some very tough times.

Why do I say this?¬† Why do I feel that some of my “not quite” worst case scenarios are coming true? What signs do I see as signs that my readers need to start taking up defensive¬† positions?

A Sea of Unwanted Imports essentially confirms my first conclusion as Long Beach, once busy facilitation globalization, is not becoming a lot for the products of globalization.¬† With finished good stacking up on one end (bound for US markets), and the materials China needs to produce those goods meeting at Long Beach… we effectively are seeing globalization take a break on the docks.

Through another meeting I had this week, the news was worse as one of the top 5 ports effectively said that their boats were just sitting idle.

Take this a step further, and it becomes clear that while there are some short term upsides for those ports, that the economic impacts are going to spread down the chain fast… and are going to impact the lowest end of the economic curve hardest.

Unions are going to face trouble keeping their people in jobs, truckers are going to sit idle, and container manufacturers are going to slow.

To say that this cycle isn’t scary would be to bury my head in the sand, and to say that the world is coming to an end would be to cave into the fear factor of the No Bias No Bull reports.

I just suggest people take a real inventory of where their situation is, and consider where the ripples in their lake are..

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One Response to “Rising Concern As Economic Ripples Widen”

  1. Elliott Ng says:

    December 1st, 2008 at 11:50 pm

    Yes, I feel the same way. Reading Michael Pettis’ thoughts on this situation.