UBS Reduces China GDP Forecast to 6.5%

Thursday, January 22, 2009 2:34
Posted in category The Big Picture, Uncategorized
Comments Off on UBS Reduces China GDP Forecast to 6.5%

In their recent report, What kind of growth can we expect in 2009?, Wang Tao and her team conclude that China will grow at 6.5% for the year.

A figure they have been reducing on a regular basis, the current reduction comes as a result of the recent release that China’s Q4 2008 number was so low:

In their words:

We downgrade our 2009 GDP forecast to 6.5%, not because we think sequential growth is going to fall further, but mostly reflecting a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q4 08. The lower Q408 growth brings down the 2009 calendar year average growth rate if we assume the same sequential growth. We are not expecting a more rapid rebound following the sharper fall – although China’s policy response has been forceful and quick in coming, the adverse shock has turned out to be greater, and the end of the global de-leveraging process is not yet near.

Aside from this, Ms. Wang also included a chart that I thought would be of interest.

Even in 2010, their new model predicts under 8% growth.

Both comments and pings are currently closed.