Another Economic Indicator From Street: Shanghai Trade Expo Attendance

Friday, March 6, 2009 14:06
Posted in category The Big Picture, Uncategorized
Comments Off on Another Economic Indicator From Street: Shanghai Trade Expo Attendance

When China’s PMI figure was released earlier this week, it set off a flurry of economic analysis that (in my mind) failed to represent what we were seeing on the ground.

That while there was an improvement from December, the reality on the street reflected something diffrent altogether. A point made by my friend’s email when describing the current conditions in the global cargo market.

Another view from the street is provided by the article Shanghai trade fair sees deals fall 39 percent.

Held earlier this week, I had someone from the office go by pick up the catalog of attendees, and the report was not good. To her, it was not as bad as the Canton fair last year, but it was not good.

What I found interesting about the statistics is that while the foreign visitor statistics were only off 5%, the orders were off 40%:

During the fair, orders to the U.S. fell nearly 47 percent to $310 million, while sales to Japan fell 27 percent to $656.9 million. Europe deals fell 40 percent to $524.4 million, the organizers said in a statement.

Like the falloff in FDI that I began worrying about middle of last year (that is a sign of longer term issues), these results provide another source of anecdotal evidence that orders are not coming back anytime soon.

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